KESKUSTELU

Pointti on se, että jos usva-arvolla vaikkapa 1000 saadaan tulos : liian usvaista, ei tulosta. Ja sitten usva-asteella 995 saadaan lukema x, niin kuinka voi olla mahdollista, että hyvinkin pieni muutos saa aikaan siirtymisen epäluotettavuudesta täyteen luotettavuuteen? Eikö kysy ole vain astettaisesta siirtymisestä hyvin epäluotettavasta aika epäluotettavaan?

Täältä ne löytyy.

Near Real-Time Polar Clouds and Radiation from AVHRR
http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/products/rtcaspr/

Overview

This page provides plots of near real-time surface, cloud, and radiative properties over the Arctic and Antarctic as derived from NOAA-16 AVHRR GAC data, subsampled to 25 km. Retrievals are done once daily with satellite data acquired near 12Z (GMT). Composite images are made from all orbits acquired within four hours of the target time. Processing is done with the Cloud and Surface Parameter Retrieval (CASPR) system which includes FluxNet.

Cloud and Surface Parameter Retrieval (CASPR)
http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/caspr/caspr.html
The Cloud and Surface Parameter Retrieval (CASPR) system is a toolkit for the analysis of data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor carried on NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. The toolkit is a collection of algorithms that can be used to retrieve a variety of surface and cloud parameters. These algorithms are integrated into a user-friendly, flexible environment that includes on-line help and a multitude of options for displaying and printing results. CASPR can compute any or all of the following:

Alueen lämpötilan voi käydä tarkistamassa täältä
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/weather_stations/obsid/89087.html

13.08.2010 alueilla pakkasta 15-30C

Alempi noista lämpöaluesta näyttäisi olevan napajäätikön ja Rossin meren tienoilla. Vasemman puoleinen puolestaan Weddellin merellä. Nyt vain pitäisi tietää voiko ylipäätänsä noin lähellä napajäätikköä, siis lähellä -50 asteen lukemia olla, huolimatta meren läheisyyttä ja vielä elokuussa 0- +10 astetta lämmintä. Karttatiedon mukaan lämpötilan 0-käyrä kulkee heinäkuussa yleensä n. 300 km Falklandin saarista etelään. Eli matka esim. tuolle Weddellin merelle on aikamoinen. Tammikuussa n. 300 km Falklandista etelään kulkeekin sitten +10 asteen lämpökäyrä. Koska merilämpötiloissa ei tapahdu valtavia muutoksia puoleen tai toiseen tuntuu tuo Nasan lämpökenttätieto aika uskomattomalta.

En ole ollenkaan varma, että nuo lausunnot satelliittien kyvyttömyydestä mitata pilvien läpi on nyt tulkittu oikein. Voihan se olla, että pilvet vaativat jotain korjauksia, mutta eihän mitenkään ole voitu luoda satelliitteihin perustuvia lämpötilanmittausjärjestelmiä, jos pilviä ei olisi otettu huomioon.
Omin silmin voi katsella kuvia, esim.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/ANIM/s ... fnl.30.gif
ja pohtia, mikä on pilvien vaikutus.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/psd2/coastal/satres/

McMurdo, joka sijaitsee Rossin meren ja napajäätikön reuna-alueella on keskilämmöltään - 17 astetta (vuosikeskiarvo). Koordinaatit 77,8 eteläinen, 166,7 itäinen.

Lämpimin napajäätikön rannalla oleva yleisimmistä mittauasemista on Casey (Australian eteläpuolella). Siellä vuoden keskilämpötila on ollut viimeisen parinkymmenen vuoden aikana n. -9 astetta. Se on jo aika pohjoisessa (66,3 eteläinen, 110,5 itäinen)

Weddellinmeren sääasemien lämpötiloja 13.08.2010


lähde
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/weather_stations/obsid/89257.html

Rossinmerellä n.-40C
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/weather_stations/obsid/89376.html

Kuvat osoittavat, että satelliittikuvan lämpökentät eivät missään tapauksessa ole voineet pitää paikkaansa. Weddelin merellä lukemat olivat jopa pohjoisosissa sen verran tukevasti miinuksen puolella ettei satelliittikuvan punaväri ole voinut millään ulottua tuolle alueelle, eteenkään noin etelää kohti, lähelle -50 asteen lukemia.

Taitaa NOAA 16 olla hunossa hapessa kun katsoo sen tilaa
NOAA 16 Spacecraft Status Summary

http://www.oso.noaa.gov/poesstatus/spacecraftStatusSummary.asp?spacecraft=16
monet toiminnot ovat keltaisella eli rajoittuneet.

ja vielä hunommalta näyttää NOAA 17 tila

http://www.oso.noaa.gov/poesstatus/spacecraftStatusSummary.asp?spacecraft=17
1-YELLOW = Operational with limitations (or Standby)
2-ORANGE = Operational with Degraded Performance
1-RED = Not Operational

Suurten Järvien satelliittiskandaali ei ole mitenkään ainutlaatuinen eikä ensimmäinen särö satelliittimittausten uskottavuudesta. Jo viime vuoden lopulla kirjoitettiin asioista, jotka heittävät varjon mm. vuoden 2009 tuloksille ja aikaisemmillekin.

http://www.pool.org.au/text/peter_raven ... ere_is_why

The satellite temperature maps from NASA may all be nonsense. Here is why.

from Peter Ravenscroft, 20.12.09

No reliable global temperature maps at all?

The satellite temperature maps from NASA may all be nonsense. Here is why.

First, Climategate is worse than we thought, as the data appears to have been deliberately skewed, in the standard global temperature dataset against which all the others we have are calibrated. Christopher Monckton has described the problem in detail here. So, as the satellite map are calibrated against the East Anglia CRU dataset, the world standard, the lurid colours of the planetary temperature hotspots are now suspect.

But we may have a worse problem than mere dishonesty in science and derivative error. We may have serious undetected error of an entirely different sort in the satellite readings.

Just have a look at the big brown patch on the map here. NASA is saying that in March 2008, that entire region, in essence the whole of Siberia, was between 5 and 8.5 degrees C hotter in Mach 2008 than the average for their baseline period, 1950-1980.

Is this believable? The entire planet is in a huge flap because the world overall may have warmed by something under 1 C degree in a century. We have just all agreed, apparently, to try stop the temperature-tide from coming in, by pegging the rise at 2 degrees C., by some date, relative to the present. King Canute must be rolling about in glee in his grave, since his legendary strand- line stunt was to show his court sycophants that his power was in fact somewhat limited. So, if the temperature is up over 5 degrees in March (northern spring), relative to 30 to 60 year ago, why are there not endless reports of catastrophe from the steppes? Why are the yaks and the Mongols not fleeing west? Or south? Or to the the moon?

Maybe the map is gibberish, through no fault of anyone. And all the rest of them. I will ask James Hansen of the GISS, to give them a fair right of reply. He fields the questions on satellite temperature data, according to their website.

I am not saying that what follows is so, just that it seems very possible.

To start, the Goddard Institute of Space Science at NASA so distrusts its own satellite temperature data for Africa south of the equator that it has taken to blanking it all out. As per the map here.

Next, some information from a little-known place. The Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, is located in the delightful seaside resort of that name. Hermanus is not far from the south end of Africa, and I caught a mackerel in the harbour there, as a kid, fishing with my Dad. So I am sure on that point, at least. The HMO is responsible for monitoring the magnetic field changes for southern Africa and its surrounds, and for issuing warnings about problems that may arise for navigation systems, from those changes. Here is their website. They have been at it since 1932, were originally in Cape Town, at the university, but they shifted along the coast to a magnetically quiet area when the electric trains went in. The HMO is news to me, I best admit. They do keep things quiet there, it seems.

They have said that the magnetic shifts associated with the South Atlantic Anomaly (the SAA), are damaging satellite instruments. They place the source of the shifts causing the SAA at 3,000 kms down, at the earth's core-mantle boundary and consider they are part of the beginning of a magnetic pole reversal. In 2004 Dr Pieter Kotze of the HMO said the reversal is due any time between tomorrow and 3,000 years from now. See here.

I have no problem at all with any of that, but I think one can perhaps refine the problem area, and that something of considerable import may follow.

Some NASA satellite temperature maps still show the region of intense warming in Angola, that GISS NASA now blanks out. See this post for one such map. It is undoubtedly on the edge of the SAA, but it far more closely matches the change in the vertical or radial or z component of the magnetic field, down at the core-mantle boundary. That is simply another way of observing the same overall thing, but perhaps it gives a sharper perspective.

The possibility, or perhaps better the likelihood is, that the satellite temperature instruments at least, have not been physically damaged, but are now seriously over-reading, as they pass over the vertical mag field anomaly below northern Angola. The centre and the location and shape of at least part of the northern edge of the two anomalies there, temperature and deep magnetics, match closely, on some maps at least.

Conversely, the SAA is large, and we do not have matching temperature anomaly over all of it, as far as I can see.

So, it may be that the temperature sensors in the satellites are particularly susceptible to changes in the Z component of the magnetic field below. I should here insert that I know absolutely nothing of how those sensors work, but will try find out next, on the Internet. I am merely going by what the HMO is saying - present magnetic shifts are damaging some satellite instruments.

And here comes the larger problem.

As I have a few times published on ABC Pool, there is also a very close correlation between the other three of the world's four largest temperature and deep magnetic anomalies - those, in size order, being Siberia north of Lake Baikal, Canada west of Hudson Bay and the Antarctic Peninsula and the seas to its west. Perhaps PTMA1, 2 and 3 with Angola as PTMA4, would save dots in hyperspace and time, where "PTMA" stands for Paired Temperature and Magnetic Anomalies) But these, regrettably, just having got their own acronyms, an important step up in the class and hierarchical struggles that beset physical phenomena, may now turn out to be mere instrument errors.

In other words, Siberia and Canada and the Antarctic Peninsula may not have warmed up nearly as much as the satellite maps say they have, or in fact at all. We now should be very unsure.

And this is a damn nuisance to me, if correct, as I have just almost finished a 470-page book that assumed they were real and were controlling the climate. So I hope the instrument are reading reality, but now have serious doubts. It's called science, I believe. Admit you may have screwed up, and don't try hide the decline of your model.

This is as big a problem for the carbonists as for me, unless they can show that the real temperature picture matches where the 500 AQUA satellite AIRS map show the carbon dioxide i really coming from. And then, they will have an even larger problem, since the CO2 is very clearly coming from the seas and the deep sedimentary basis, and not from our cities.

Their best hope is that the AIRS readings are gibberish too.

I have emailed Pieter Kotze to see what he has to say, if he cares to, but it is now Christmas. Probably the Copenhagen Fiasco was enough for all of us for one week.

Maybe the magnetic decline will not matter a jot for centuries - until the mag poles flip and melt the icecaps. Then you can moor your dingy to the sharp bit on top of the Sydney Opera House, to catch some of the fine parrotfish living on the coral on the roofs below.

Time to look at the thermometer on the wall at home a bit more closely? And at the plants outside, to see what they think about it all?

Merry Christmas all. Including to many friends out in the Pacific Islands. Maybe the climate is just fine, this Christmas. And will be for the rest of your life. Just be nice to the parrotfish, as they are our brothers and sisters.

Peter Ravenscroft.

Closeburn, Queensland, 20 December, 2009.

Lisää aiheeseen liittyvää - satelliittimittaus ja magneettisuus.

http://www.chemtrails.ch/dokumentatione ... esburg.htm

Something weird is going on below us“. -
SUNDAY TIMES - Johannesburg, South Africa.
Zurück


SUNDAY TIMES Johannesburg, South Africa. Sunday 18th July 2004.
National news: „Something weird is going on below us“.

SATELLITES IN LOW-EARTH ORBIT OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF RADIATION DAMAGE by BONNY SCHOONAKKER

Southern Africa is experiencing weird vibes, according to scientists studying one of the more profound upheavals awaiting planet Earth. This forthcoming revolution is a reversal in the Earth's magnetic field, an event that occurs every 500 000 years or so. Signs that the reversal is about to happen again are nowhere more apparent than over Southern Africa, according to Dr Pieter Kotze, head of the geomagnetism group at the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory in the southern Cape.

Satellites in low-Earth orbit over Southern Africa are already showing signs of radiation damage suffered as a result of the Earth's magnetic field weakening above our part of the planet. The field forms the magneto sphere, which, like the Earth's ozone layer, protects the planet from the sun's harmful radiation. Other symptoms destined to become apparent in the years ahead include the aurora australis, or southern lights. Usually seen only over the South Pole, these will become visible closer to the equator as the Earth's magnetic field weakens and disappears. Eventually, on past form, the field will reappear but with magnetic north and south pole changing places, as they have done for billions of years.

According to an article in the New York Times this week, the change will be devastating for migratory animals such as loggerhead turtles, which use the Earth's magnetic field to migrate 8 000km around the Atlantic. Bees, swallows, cranes, salmon, homing pigeons, frogs and eagles may also lose their way between breeding and feeding grounds. Humans will suffer, too. The (temporary) disappearance of the magnetic field ahead of its reversal will lead to increased occurrences of radiation-induced cancer, Kotze said. Commenting on the New York Times report, Kotze said that the decay in the Earth's magnetic field was becoming increasingly apparent in "the South Atlantic anomaly", a huge deviation in the Earth's magnetic field discovered with the help of the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory.

This month, the European Space Agency (ESA) approved a multimillion-euro space mission, called Swarm, to measure the anomaly, which stretches from Southern Africa towards South America. The ESA's scientists believe that this anomaly, as revealed by the occasional "geomagnetic jerk" to which our part of the world is prone, will provide a clue to predicting the next "flip" in the Earth's magnetic field, now 250 000 years overdue - as these things go.

Three ESA satellites, flying in low-Earth orbit (400km to 500km up) after their launch in 2009, will measure the variation over Southern Africa. The observatory has also recorded a faster-growing deviation between true north and magnetic north over Southern Africa during the past 10 years, drifting steadily westward. Taken together, the blip and this drift point to an imminent reversal in the Earth's north-south magnetic alignment. "We should be able to work out the first predictions by the end of the [Swarm] mission," Gauthier Hulot, an ESA geophysicist and a colleague of Kotze's, told the New York Times.

The discovery of the "anomalous field behaviour over Southern Africa" drew wide attention, reported the US newspaper, because "it seemed consistent with what the [ESA's] computer simulations identified as the possible beginnings of a flip". Kotze said that, "these are all indications that we have conditions similar to the last reversal,
780 000 years ago. So it means that we are due for another one soon." In geological terms, however, "soon" could mean anytime between tomorrow and the next 3 000 years.

Kotze said the anomaly was the result of "things happening" far below the Earth's surface. At the boundary between the mantle and the outer core (more than 3 000km below Southern Africa) disruptions were occurring in the flow of the Earth's liquid outer core (mostly iron), he explained. This created "a reverse dynamo situation", which is becoming increasingly apparent as variations in the magnetic field above the Earth's surface.

Katso ensin päivämäärää ja päättele sitten. Edellisenkin viestin kirjoittaja on geologi.

Miehen webbisivun otsikko 'Is climate change linked to geomagnetic changes?' kertoo tarpeeksi halusta keskittyä magnetismin muutoksiin. Ainahan vihjeitä voi nähdä maan magneettisten napojen vaihtumisesta, vaikka tapahtuma itsessään olisi kaukana. On yleisesti tiedossa, että maan magneettikenttä heikkenee, mutta hitaasti. Ei hätää.

So what? Kyse on nyt siitä, mitä magnetismi (seikka josta geologien täytyy olla hyvinkin perillä) voikaan aikaansaada satelliittidatalle tietyissä olosuhteissa. Satelliittimittausten ongelmat ovat tulleet - ainakin meille maallikoille - yllätyksenä. Luulimme ilmeisesti vähän jokainen, että juuri satelliittimittaus antaisi erittäin luotettavan kuvan viimeisen 31 vuoden lämpötilakehityksestä. Näin ei nyt paljastuneiden ongelmien jälkeen välttämättä ole.

Asiat ovat siis saaneet varsin hankalan käänteen. Harmillinen tapaus. Me kaikki olisimme mielellämme halunneet vihdoinkin saada "varmaa tietoa".

Täytyy, mutta kun ei ole. Sitä paitsi ei vaikuta satelliitidataan tuon taivaallista.


Sinäpä sen sanoit. Mittauksissa on ihan muitakin ongelmia, älä välitä. Katsopas vaikka mitä tapahtuu UAH:n ja RSS:n datalle juuri nyt: lämpöennätykset paukkuvat alemmassa troposfäärissä.

Ja koko alkuvuosi on vain toisiksi lämpimin, vaikka meillä oli juuri voimakkaanpuoleinen El Nino.
Mutta säästä puheenollen - katsotaanpa mitä ne satelliittimittaukset puolen vuoden päästä näyttävät kun La Nina pääsee kunnolla jyrähtämään.

Intialainen tutkija Devendra Singh kirjoitti satelliittimittausten virheistä jo vuonna 2004:

" Researcher, Devendra Singh, tried and failed to draw attention to the increasing problems with the satellite as early as 2004 but his paper remained largely ignored outside of his native homeland.

Indian scientist, Singh reported that NOAA-16 started malfunctioning due to a scan motor problem that caused a 'barcode' appearance. Singh’s paper, ‘Performance of the NOAA-16 and AIRS temperature soundings over India’ exposed the satellite’s growing faults and identified three key errors that needed to be addressed."