KESKUSTELU

Tuon kuvan osalta voidaan palata asiaan vuoden kuluttua. Toivottavasti osuu paremmin kuin aiemmat ennusteet. :)

Oletkos saanut itkupotkuraivarin? Äläs nyt. Ei tämä niin monimutkaista ole. Kysyin sinulta simppeliä kannanottoa selvyyden vuoksi. Vastauksen sijaan heitit väitteen jonka tueksi esitit pari kuvaa jotka eivät mitenkään tue väitettäsi ei silmä kädessä blaa blaa blaa...

Tuolla aiemmin väitit noiden kuvien perusteella NOAA:n ennustetta päivitetyn. Kuvien perusteella ennuste ei ole muuttunut. Joten?

Alkujakso on leikattu pois

Minusta ne eivät näytä siltä: post1418459.html#p1418459

Hathawayn ennuste syklin 24 maksimille Maaliskuu 2006: 145
Hathawayn ennuste syklin 24 maksimille Lokakuu 2008: 137
Hathawayn ennuste syklin 24 maksimille Tammikuu 2009: 104

Eipä noilla ennustuksilla taida suurta virkaa olla, joten ei niiden epäonnistuminenkaan kovin merkityksellistä ole. Dr. Leif Svalgaardin mukaan niillä kuitenkin on jotain merkitystä kalliiden satelliittien vakuuttajille.

Löysää vannetta pääsi ympäriltä ja lue:

Tässä vuoden ehdoton komiikan mestariteos:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/06/s ... more-25993
Vuosien 2004-2007 spektrimuutosten perusteella on päädytty johtopäätökseen, että aktiivisuuden aleneminen lämmittää maapalloa ja että 1900 -luvulla Auringon kokonaisvaikutus olikin viilentävä.

We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period and we need to carry out further studies...

Tässä vuoden ehdoton komiikan mestariteos:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/06/s ... more-25993

Vuosien 2004-2007 spektrimuutosten perusteella on päädytty johtopäätökseen, että aktiivisuuden aleneminen lämmittää maapalloa ja että 1900 -luvulla Auringon kokonaisvaikutus olikin viilentävä.

The response of tropospheric and surface climate to variations in solar activity is an important consideration in the attribution of surface temperature trends to human or natural factors. Radiative forcing of climate is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as the change in net flux at the tropopause, taking into account the effects of any stratospheric adjustment. It is known that solar radiative forcing is modulated by the ozone response to changes in solar ultraviolet. The effect of an increase in ozone is twofold: first to reduce the flux of solar radiation reaching the tropopause and second to increase the flux of infrared radiation, mainly through its impact on stratospheric temperatures. The net effect has been assessed to be a small increase in the net downward flux.

Simulations of the effect of solar variability on tropospheric climate, such as those reviewed in the IPCC assessments, tend to incorporate broad spectral bands that resolve neither details of the spectrum nor the effect of stratospheric ozone. The SIM measurements provide an additional perspective for this. Although the change in total irradiance from 2004 to 2007 is similar in the Lean and SIM data sets their very different spectral compositions, and the resulting impacts on the stratosphere, produce quite different pictures of the transmission of radiation to the tropopause, and thus different modulations of radiative forcing.

...

The SIM data provide an entirely different picture from the one currently accepted for the variation of solar irradiance. It is pertinent to ask whether this spectral variability is typical of solar activity cycles and, if so, why it has not been observed previously. It is possible that the Sun has been behaving in an anomalous fashion recently; certainly the current solar minimum is lower and longer than any of those observed over recent decades and perhaps the solar spectrum has different characteristics when the Sun is in a state of very low activity. Gaps in understanding will only be resolved by the acquisition of long-term, well-calibrated, high-vertical-resolution measurements of stratospheric composition and temperature acquired coincidently with essential solar spectral data that have also been properly degradation-corrected and calibrated.

The SORCE observations are, however, consistent with a solar-activity-dependent change in the temperature gradient of the solar photosphere, suggesting that the offsetting irradiance trends with wavelength seen in SIM should appear in each solar cycle. If this is the case, then it is necessary to reconsider the current understanding of the mechanisms whereby solar cycle variability influences climate: the impact on the stratosphere is much larger than previously thought and the radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. At present there is no evidence to ascertain whether this behaviour has occurred before, but if this were the case during previous multi-decadal periods of low solar activity it would be necessary to revisit assessments of the solar influence on climate and to revise the methods whereby these are represented in global models.

Lisäksi pitää ihmetellä, ettei yhdellekään denialistille ole tullut mieleen käyttää tätä selityksenä sille miksi ilmasto on lämmennyt tai ainakin pysynyt lämpimänä vaikka TSI on ollut laskussa jo tovin...